‘You’re Gonna Need a Bigger Boat’: Assessing the Relationship Between Economic Performance and Ethno- nationalism in Bosnia and Herzegovina (2002-2022)

It has been postulated that encouraging the financial recovery of Bosnia and Herzegovina will promote the easing of its ethnic polarization. However, when juxtaposing the results of Bosnian parliamentary elections from 2002 to 2022 with the country’s economic fluctuations in the same period, our longitudinal study shows that ethno-nationalist voting behavior correlates with unemployment levels especially in the Banja Luka and Prijedor areas of the Republika Srpska. In an effort to update Modernization Theory, the main finding of this paper is that an improving economy—as measured by unemployment—may be a factor in helping to ease ethnic tensions in certain subsets of BiH’s society. As the correlation cannot be shown with GDP, however, or in most individual voting districts in BiH, economic performance cannot be assumed to be the powerful influence on ethnic reconciliation that some had expected or assumed after the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement.
 

Benedetta Merlino

Benedetta Merlino


Benedetta Merlino is a Doctoral student in Law and Politics at the University of Graz. She has a Bachelor’s Degree in International Science from the University of Bologna, a Master's Degree in International Relations from the University of Turin and a Master's Degree in Democracy and Human Rights in Southeast Europe from the University of Sarajevo, where she wrote a thesis on the impact of Civil Society in shaping the concept of nationalism among youth in Bosnia and Herzegovina. She is part of the board of directors and writer at IARI (Institute for International Relations' Analysis), and she cooperates with the Post Conflict Research Center of Sarajevo. Her research and academic activity focus on the Western Balkan area, and her topics of interest include nationalism, state capture, post-war memorialization and Civil Society.
 

David Pimentel

David Pimentel


David Pimentel is a Professor of Law at the University of Idaho and a PhD candidate in Law & Politics at the University of Graz’s Centre for Southeastern European Studies. He has a B.A. (Economics) from Brigham Young University and both an M.A. (Economics) and a J.D. (Law) from the University of California Berkeley, having finished his law degree at Harvard Law School. He has experience in Bosnia and Herzegovina leading the Court Restructuring project for the Independent Judicial Commission in 2002 and as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Sarajevo’s Law Faculty in 2010-11. From 2003-07, he served as the Chief of Court Management at the UN’s International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia and also worked as Head of Rule of Law for South Sudan for the UN Mission there. He has lectured and authored articles on, inter alia, rule of law promotion, judicial structure and governance, and court reform around the world, including not just BiH but also South Sudan, Nepal, Mozambique, Iraq, Turkey, Montenegro, and Thailand.
 

Samuel D. Pimentel

Samuel D. Pimentel


Samuel D. Pimentel is an Assistant Professor in the Statistics Department at the University of California, Berkeley. He holds a B.S. (Mathematical & Computational Science) from Stanford University and a Ph.D. (Statistics) from the University of Pennsylvania. His research aims to understand causal relationships using large administrative datasets from the social and biomedical sciences, with a particular focus on the optimal design of comparison groups and sensitivity analysis for unobserved confounding. His work has appeared in leading statistical and social science journals (Journal of the American Statistical Association, Biometrika, American Journal of Political Science). He is an Associate Editor for the Journal of Causal Inference, and his research has been supported by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and by a National Science Foundation CAREER award.
 

Lorenzo Ugurgieri

Lorenzo Ugurgieri


Lorenzo Ugurgieri comes from Arcidosso, a small town located in the south of Tuscany. PhD student in Law and Politics, he has a B.A. (Contemporary History) from the University of Pisa and an M.A. (European Studies) from the University of Siena. He has always dealt with the history of International Relations in the 20th century and EU peacekeeping in the Western Balkans. His academic activity focuses on the application of a long-lasting and legitimate concept of security in all those sub-national contexts where the dialogue between ethnic-, linguistic- and/or religious communities is characterised by political problems. In addition to his Doctoral commitments, he has worked with "Coding-Lab," a project sponsored by the University of Siena and devoted to the analysis of far-right, sovereignist MPs in France and Germany.
 

Adrian Waters

Adrian Waters


Adrian Waters was born in Rome in 1996 and has lived and studied in both Italy and England. He has a Bachelor of Arts in History and Politics from the University of Kent (Canterbury, UK), a Master of Arts in History from University College London, and a second-level Master in International Public Affairs from the LUISS Guido Carli University in Rome. He is currently enrolled in the Law and Politics PhD programme at the University of Graz, Austria. Since 2018, he has been a member of the Institute for a Greater Europe, a think tank focusing on the politics of Europe and its neighbouring regions, for which he was its secretary and now acts as its Democratisation Desk Officer.
 


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