Strategic Autonomy of Small States in the Western Balkans vis-à-vis Great-Power Projections
This article examines how Euro-Atlantic alignment and hedging shape strategic autonomy among small states in the Western Balkans through a qualitative comparison of Kosovo and Serbia. Kosovo represents aligned autonomy, combining a clear Western orientation, external security anchoring, and the pursuit of full international recognition. Serbia represents hedging, maintaining multi-vector relations with the EU, Russia, China, and other actors while remaining exposed to ambiguity, external leverage, and hybrid influence. The article argues that autonomy is relational and multidimensional: alignment may reduce diplomatic manoeuvring while strengthening credibility and security predictability, whereas hedging may broaden short-term options while weakening policy coherence and institutional resilience. Drawing on official EU and NATO sources, policy reports, expert interviews, and selected V-Dem indicators, the analysis shows that small-state autonomy depends not simply on the number of external partnerships, but on security dependence, recognition constraints, institutional capacity, and the ability to convert strategic orientation into coherent and resilient policy.
Denur Paçaku
Denur Paçaku is a PhD candidate in Political Science at South East European University and a doctoral researcher at the University of Graz. His research focuses on hybrid warfare, security policy, diplomacy, European Integration and the Western Balkans.